Working paper 14 maggio 2012

Country Risk. From theory to practice

Rather than aiming for a “one size fits all” index, SACE’s new approach breaks down country risk as much as possible to identify and analyze its different forms, manifestations, events.

The concept of country risk is not easily quantifiable and the difficulty of its measurement depends on the interaction of complex financial, economic, social and political variables. To condense all these variables into a single country risk index is not only impossible, but probably misleading. To understand country risk, there is no alternative other than a detailed and specific analysis. Rather than aiming for a “one size fits all” index, SACE’s new approach breaks down country risk as much as possible to identify and analyze its different forms, manifestations, events. This approach proposes that every economic agent (i.e., exporters, banks, contractors, and investors) seeks its own path along a specific interactive country risk map, depending on the risk they face (i.e., credit risk, regulatory risk, political violence risk), and identify the most relevant insurance and financial products that an Export Credit Agency like SACE provides.

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